A hybrid age- and length-structured model for assessing regulatory measures in multiple-species, multiple-fleet fisheries     

Mesnil  B.; Shepherd  J. G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1990,47(2):115-132

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Fishing mortality and the variation of catches: a time series approach     

MacLennan  D. N.; Shepherd  J. G.; Pope  J. G.; Gislason  H. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1992,49(4):425-430

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Modelling the timing of plankton production and its effect on recruitment of cod (Gadus morhua)     

Brander  K. M.; Dickson  R. R.; Shepherd  J. G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(5):962-966

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On the analysis of catch and effort data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Laurec  A; Shepherd  J. G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1983,41(1):81-84

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Potential cauchy-poisson waves generated by submarine eruptions of kick 'em Jenny volcano     

M. S. Smith  J. B. Shepherd 《Natural Hazards》1995,11(1):75-94

Kick 'em Jenny is the only known currently active submarine volcano in the Lesser Antilles. The volcano has erupted at least 10 times since first being discovered in 1939 and the summit has shoaled from a depth of 232 m in 1962 to its present-day depth of 150 m. Kick 'em Jenny is located in a province of explosive volcanism, has a known history of explosive eruptions and erupts magma of an explosive type. Future eruptions are likely to become increasingly more violent as the effect of the overlying water pressure becomes less. A preliminary study (Smith and Shepherd, 1993) suggests that Kick 'em Jenny is a prime candidate for tsunamigenic eruptions on a potentially hazardous scale, possibly affecting the whole of the eastern Caribbean region.The classic approach to problems of water waves generated by sudden disturbances of the free surface makes use of the Cauchy-Poisson-Lamb theory. A large number of theoretical developments to this theory have been made for specific forms of surface disturbance. A development by Unoki and Nakano (1953a, b) considers both two- and three-dimensional Cauchy-Poisson waves generated by finite initial elevations and impulses applied to a free surface of infinitely deep water. Unoki and Nakano's results compared well to the wave systems recorded following submarine eruptions of the Myojinsho Reef volcano in 1952–53.Given the similarity of the two situations, Unoki and Nakano's theory is applied to Kick 'em Jenny to provide estimates of potential Cauchy-Poisson wave heights throughout the eastern Caribbean for a range of eruption magnitudes. The results show that, although the waves generated are unlikely to pose much of a threat to the eastern Caribbean as a whole, they should be considered a hazard to the islands immediately adjacent to the volcano including Grenada, the Grenadines, and St Vincent.  相似文献   

Coastal Problems: Geomorphology, Ecology and Society at the Coast     

Mike Shepherd 《New Zealand geographer》1997,53(1):55-56

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Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling     

Anita Shepherd  Karen M. Gill  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3864-3877

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Variability of rainfall over Lake Kariba catchment area in the Zambezi river basin,Zimbabwe     

Shepherd Muchuru  Joel O. Botai  Christina M. Botai  Willem A. Landman  Abiodun M. Adeola 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(1-2):325-338

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Atrazine Used as a Tracer of Induced Recharge     

Diana Duncan  Darryll T. Pederson  Timothy R. Shepherd  James D. Can 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1991,11(4):144-150

The city of Lincoln draws water from a well field along the banks of the Platte River in east-central Nebraska. We have been able to follow the infusion of atrazine into this well field under induced recharge. Samples of water from the river, several monitoring wells and a production well were analyzed by GC/MS and solid phase extraction and found to change in concentration over the range 0.1 and 5.0 ppb of atrazine through the spring, summer, and fall 1989. Increases in the concentration of atrazine relating to precipitation events in the Platte River Basin were observable in the well water samples and ultimately in Lincoln municipal tap water. Atrazine from the river was seen to move via induced recharge and into well field ground water and away from the river at an observable rate. The concentration of atrazine in the river is dependent upon time of year and precipitation in the river basin.  相似文献   

Metallogenesis in the Harlech Dome,North Wales: A fluid inclusion interpretation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T. J. Shepherd  P. M. Allen 《Mineralium Deposita》1985,20(3):159-168

A regional fluid inclusion study of Cu-Au (+Zn-Pb) mineralisation in the Harlech Dome area, North Wales, gives support to the concept of two distinct metallogenic episodes. The inclusion assemblages associated with the porphyry copper mineralisation at Coed-y-Brenin are consistent with a genetic model of early potassic-propylitic alteration overprinted by later phyllic alteration. High salinity fluids, normally characteristic of potassic alteration, are confined to the host rock quartz. The meteoric/hydrothermal system is closely linked to the emplacement of late-Cambrian diorites. Integrated fluid inclusion and mineralogical studies of the Gold-belt veins suggest that the mineralising fluids were probably dehydration waters released from weakly metamorphosed Cambrian and perhaps Precambrian sediments during hydraulic fracturing in a tensional zone at the close of the Caledonian orogeny. Localisation of economic concentrations of gold in veins at the level of the Clogau Formation is ascribed to a destabilisation of metal complexes caused by a change in fluid buffering from a pyrite-magnetite assemblage in the Lower Cambrian sediments to a pyrite-pyrrhotite-graphite assemblage in the Upper Cambrian sediments. Veining associated with the Coed-y-Brenin porphyry copper deposit and related breccia pipes can be distinguished from the copper-gold veins of the coextensive Dolgellau Gold-belt by the presence in the former of inclusions notably richer in CO₂. Furthermore the Gold-belt fluids have a distinctive low CO₂/CH₄+N₂+H₂ ratio.  相似文献